Transparent Methodology

How We Generate Analysis

AlphaCouncil provides data-driven market analysis and educational insights for GCC investors. This page explains our methodology — how we score stocks, synthesize perspectives, and present information. Transparency builds trust.

This platform provides analysis and education, not licensed financial advice.
Stock Thesis Framework

The 12-Dimension Analysis

Every stock is distilled into 12 calibrated scores (1–10, higher = better). The dimensions are grouped by time horizon — separating “is this a good company?” from “is this a good moment?” — with a sentiment layer reading the current narrative.

Separating Quality from Timing

The Investment Horizon dimensions answer whether the underlying business is fundamentally sound and worth owning over a multi-year period. The Trading Horizon dimensions answer whether the current setup offers an attractive entry or exit point. The Bridge Horizon reads the market’s current sentiment and news flow. Every dimension uses explicit calibration anchors — so a score of 8 on Profitability means the same thing across all stocks, not a subjective ranking. These 12 scores are one structured input into the AI Analyst Council synthesis, not standalone buy/sell signals.

Investment Horizon

6-Month to 5-Year View

9 dimensions assessing long-term company quality and fundamental merit

01

Valuation

How reasonably priced the stock is — P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA and other multiples versus peers and the stock’s own history.

Focus: Price vs fundamentals & peers · Horizon: Medium-term

02

Growth

Top-line and bottom-line growth potential — the trajectory of revenue and earnings and how durable it is.

Focus: Revenue & earnings trajectory · Horizon: Medium / Long-term

03

Profitability

How efficiently and consistently the company turns revenue into profit — margins, ROE, ROA and earnings quality.

Focus: Margins, ROE, ROA, earnings quality · Horizon: Medium / Long-term

04

Quality

Strength of the business model and balance sheet — competitive moat, durability and financial resilience.

Focus: Business durability, moat, financial strength · Horizon: Long-term

05

Dividends

Dividend reliability and income generation — yield, track record and the sustainability of the payout.

Focus: Yield, history & sustainability · Horizon: Medium / Long-term

06

Ownership

Alignment and stability of the major shareholders — institutional, insider and strategic holders.

Focus: Institutional, insider & strategic holders · Horizon: Long-term

07

Governance

Corporate-governance standards and shareholder protection — board quality, transparency and alignment.

Focus: Board quality, transparency, alignment · Horizon: Long-term

08

ESG

Sustainability and responsible business practices across environmental, social and governance factors.

Focus: Environmental, Social & Governance · Horizon: Long-term

09

Macro

Sensitivity to external shocks — exposure to interest rates, oil prices, geopolitics and regional liquidity.

Focus: Macro sensitivity & external shocks · Horizon: Medium-term

Trading Horizon

Days to 3-Month View

2 dimensions assessing near-term momentum and technical positioning

10

Momentum

Recent trend strength and earnings surprises — price and earnings momentum over the near term.

Focus: Price & earnings momentum · Horizon: Short / Medium-term

11

Technicals

Chart patterns and technical indicators — support/resistance, moving averages, RSI and related signals.

Focus: Chart patterns & technical indicators · Horizon: Short-term

Bridge Horizon

Live Sentiment

1 dimension capturing market sentiment, news flow and analyst views

12

Sentiment & News

The current market narrative — media tone, news flow and analyst revisions shaping how the stock is perceived.

Focus: Market sentiment, news flow & analyst views · Horizon: Short-term

Understanding Scores

Scores Are Relative, Not Absolute

Every dimension score is computed relative to GCC sector peers and each stock's own historical range. A "high" value score means the stock appears cheaper than its typical valuation — not that it's universally cheap.

Peer-Relative

Scores compare against GCC sector peers, not global benchmarks that may not reflect regional realities.

Historically-Grounded

Current scores are contextualized against each stock's own historical distributions to identify meaningful deviations.

One Input, Not The Decision

Scores inform analysis but do not constitute recommendations. No single score equals a buy or sell signal.

Example Score Breakdown

How dimensions combine into a holistic view

SABIC
SABIC
Materials — Saudi
Thesis Score
72
Quality
82
Value
65
Momentum
78
Risk
58
Income
85

This score suggests review may be warranted — not that action should be taken. Always verify with your own analysis.

Multi-Perspective Analysis

The AI Analyst Council

Several specialized AI models analyze your portfolio independently, then a chairman model synthesizes their views into one balanced read. Conflicting signals are surfaced, not hidden — because real analysis involves tradeoffs.

Risk Analyst

Identifies concentration risks, volatility patterns, and potential red flags across holdings.

Valuation Analyst

Compares current valuations to historical ranges and identifies potential mispricings.

Income Analyst

Tracks dividend sustainability, yield changes, and income generation potential.

Momentum Analyst

Analyzes price trends, relative strength, and technical positioning signals.

News Analyst

Monitors news flow for material developments affecting your specific holdings.

Macro Analyst

Links oil, currency, and regional economic indicators to portfolio exposures.

Portfolio Strategist

Synthesizes all perspectives into coherent portfolio-level observations and identifies the highest-priority considerations.

Structured Synthesis

How the Council delivers analysis

Independent Analysis

Each analyst perspective runs independently before synthesis, preventing groupthink.

Conflicts Surfaced

Disagreements between analysts are explicitly shown, not averaged away into false consensus.

Actionable Output

Final synthesis prioritizes what matters most for your specific portfolio composition.

Tadawul Exchange
Direct Impact

Saudi Aramco announces Q3 dividend of $31.1B, maintaining payout amid oil price volatility

In Portfolio High Relevance Income Impact
Reuters
Indirect Impact

OPEC+ considers extending production cuts through Q1 2027 — oil prices rise 2.3%

Sector-Wide Energy Exposure Macro Signal
News Classification

How News Impact Is Scored

Not all news matters equally to your portfolio. Our news engine classifies each story by its relevance to your actual holdings — distinguishing between direct impacts on stocks you own and indirect sector or macro effects.

Direct vs. Indirect

Stories about your specific holdings are prioritized over general sector or market news.

Sentiment Analysis

Each story is classified as constructive, cautionary, or neutral based on content analysis.

Source Credibility

Official exchange announcements and regulatory filings are weighted higher than general news sources.

Data Integrity

Source-Linked Analysis

Every data point and insight can be traced back to its origin. We don't aggregate black boxes — we curate verifiable information with clear provenance.

Traceable Sources

Click through to original filings, exchange announcements, and data provider records. Every claim links to evidence.

Confidence Indicators

Analysis includes confidence levels based on data completeness, recency, and source reliability.

Data Freshness

Timestamps show when data was last updated, with alerts for stale information that may require review.

Important Considerations

Limitations & Boundaries

Transparency means acknowledging what we cannot do as clearly as what we can. Understanding these limitations is essential to using AlphaCouncil effectively.

Data Lags

Financial statements are available after reporting periods close. Price data may have 15-minute delays. News processing takes time. Real-time decisions require real-time data sources.

Model Uncertainty

All scoring models involve assumptions and statistical uncertainty. Historical patterns may not predict future performance. Edge cases exist that models may not handle well.

Coverage Limits

We cover GCC-listed equities comprehensively, but some smaller or newly-listed instruments may have limited historical data or reduced analytical depth.

No Execution

AlphaCouncil does not execute trades, connect to brokerages, or manage money. Analysis is purely informational — all trading decisions and execution remain with you.

What AlphaCouncil Is Not

Not licensed financial advice
Not a trading platform or broker
Not an asset manager or fund
Not a guarantee of investment returns
Not a substitute for professional advice
Not a prediction of future performance

Built for Informed Decision-Making

AlphaCouncil exists to help GCC investors understand their portfolios more clearly. We provide the data, the analysis framework, and the multi-perspective synthesis. The decisions — and their outcomes — remain entirely yours.

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